Introduction
Knowing the true count gives you information about when conditions are favorable. But information alone isn’t enough — you need a strategy for acting on it. Bet sizing is the bridge between probability tracking and practical advantage: bet more when the math is in your favor, bet less when it isn’t.
This article covers spread strategies, ramp schedules, and the bankroll management principles that keep your approach sustainable.
The Fundamental Principle
The core idea is simple:
Increase your bet when the true count indicates a player advantage. Decrease it when conditions are neutral or unfavorable.
This is called a bet spread — the ratio between your minimum bet and your maximum bet. A 1-8 spread means your maximum bet is 8 times your minimum. A 1-12 spread means 12 times.
Ramp Schedules
A ramp schedule maps true count values to bet sizes. Here are three common approaches:
Conservative: 1-4 Spread
| True Count | Bet (units) |
|---|---|
| ≤ 0 | 1 |
| +1 | 1 |
| +2 | 2 |
| +3 | 3 |
| +4+ | 4 |
Low variance, low profile. Suitable for small bankrolls or cautious approaches.
Standard: 1-8 Spread
| True Count | Bet (units) |
|---|---|
| ≤ 0 | 1 |
| +1 | 1 |
| +2 | 2 |
| +3 | 4 |
| +4 | 6 |
| +5+ | 8 |
The most commonly recommended spread for 6-deck shoe games. Good balance between profitability and sustainability.
Aggressive: 1-12 Spread
| True Count | Bet (units) |
|---|---|
| ≤ 0 | 1 |
| +1 | 2 |
| +2 | 4 |
| +3 | 6 |
| +4 | 8 |
| +5 | 10 |
| +6+ | 12 |
Higher variance, higher expected return. Requires a larger bankroll to sustain the swings.
The Kelly Criterion
The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula that calculates the optimal bet size to maximize long-term growth:
Optimal Bet = Edge / Odds
For our purposes, a simplified version:
Bet = (True Count - 1) × Base Unit
At a true count of +1, the player is roughly at break-even, so the “edge” starts at +2. Each unit of true count above +1 adds approximately 0.5% edge.
The Kelly Criterion is a theoretical maximum. In practice, most approaches use half-Kelly or quarter-Kelly to reduce variance — betting 50% or 25% of the Kelly-optimal amount. This sacrifices some expected return for significantly smoother results.
Bankroll Requirements
Your bankroll determines how aggressively you can spread your bets. General guidelines:
| Spread | Recommended Bankroll | Risk of Ruin (approx.) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | 100-200 units | Very low |
| 1-8 | 200-400 units | Low to moderate |
| 1-12 | 400-800 units | Moderate |
A “unit” is your minimum bet size. If your minimum bet is $10 and you’re using a 1-8 spread, you want a bankroll of $2,000-$4,000.
Risk of ruin is the probability of losing your entire bankroll before the mathematical edge generates a profit. Larger bankrolls and smaller spreads reduce this risk.
Wonging: Entry and Exit
An advanced technique called “Wonging” (named after Stanford Wong) involves only entering a game when the true count is favorable (+2 or higher) and leaving when it drops. This eliminates the negative-expectation hands entirely.
While effective mathematically, this approach is conspicuous and not always practical. A middle ground: play through negative counts with minimum bets and increase when conditions improve.
Practical Considerations
Smooth transitions. Jumping from 1 unit to 8 units instantly is conspicuous. Some players add an intermediate step or lag their bet changes by one hand to appear more natural.
Table minimums and maximums. Your spread must fit within the table limits. A $10 minimum table with a $500 maximum gives you a 1-50 potential spread, but a $25 minimum table with a $500 maximum limits you to 1-20.
Session goals vs. long-term math. The edge from bet spreading only materializes over thousands of hands. Any individual session can result in a loss regardless of your counting accuracy. The strategy is about long-term expected value, not short-term guarantees.
Key Takeaways
- Bet more when the true count is positive (player advantage), less when neutral or negative
- A 1-8 spread is the standard recommendation for shoe games
- The Kelly Criterion provides mathematically optimal bet sizing
- Use half-Kelly or quarter-Kelly in practice to manage variance
- Bankroll requirements increase with wider spreads
- Smooth bet transitions between counts
- The mathematical edge only materializes over many hands
Next Steps
To calculate the true count accurately, you need to estimate remaining decks. Practice the Stake Sizing drill in 21 Sharp to build intuition for bet ramp decisions.